My column in this week’s Middleboro Gazette revisits the prospect of a Mashpee Wampanoag casino and Middleboro’s role in the saga.

I’ve been closely following the Mashpee Wampanoag’s casino quest ever since they came to town almost five years ago. I have a unique perspective on their casino ambitions, at least compared to the coverage that I see in the media. The going wisdom is that the tribe has an inside track to a casino and faces some challenges. My feeling for a long time has been that the tribe has no chance for a casino and that Massachusetts would be out of it’s mind to give them one. They have no experience running an endeavor this large and the perception that they will inevitably get sovereign land is just plain wrong.

The only reason the Mashpee are discussed for a casino is that the state is afraid of the worst case scenario of the tribe getting sovereign land and building a casino that pays nothing to the state. I think that is a scenario that probably doesn’t exist anywhere in the country. If the tribe ever does get sovereign land – which I think is doubtful – the state could limit the size, scope, and even existence by manipulating the casino market. They could increase the number of licenses in SE mass, reduce the license fees, reduce the payments, and do other things so that there is no viable market to support a large tribal casino.

However, the tribe is still in the game for now because there is nothing I can do to prevent the state of Massachusetts from doing something stupid if it wants to. Tribal leadership is on a suicide spending spree that might do more damage to the tribe than anything the white man has done in recent years.

There is also the question of the agreement with Middleboro and the land owned by the former investors. I didn’t even mention that in the column due to lack of space. Whether the tribe gets a casino or not, Middleboro maintains that the original agreement is still valid. The tribe’s contractual obligation to Middleboro is around $100M not counting road work. That’s a guesstimate – I’d have to go back and re-read the IGA to be sure. The Middleboro agreement could turn into a very ugly and costly legal problem for the tribe.

The whole thing is messy and ugly. Same as it ever was.